SOL on the rise, path to $250 depends on ETF, inflation, staking and institutional flows

SOL on the rise, path to $250 depends on ETF, inflation, staking and institutional flows

Solana (SOL) is recovering, but the path to $250 is not without obstacles. The main factors may be the approval of a spot ETF and the influx of institutional investment, which could break current resistance.

What the numbers and sentiment say:

Activity on the Solana network is declining, and this is also reflected in fees. Over the past week, transaction activity has fallen by about 10% and fees by almost half. Nansen says that this is pushing sentiment down, although the broader cryptocurrency market has not rushed SOL to $212.

The main risks remain the sustainability of validator earnings and the inflation of minted coins. According to some analysts, newly issued SOL accounts for a significant part of validator income, which raises concerns about the sustainability of staking in the long term.

On the other hand, a significant influx of institutional investment may act as a catalyst. If the SEC approves the spot ETF, significant capital inflows into SOL are expected in the first few months of trading – analysts are citing a 95% or higher chance of approval.

The broader economic context is also important. Recent developments in the United States, including the aforementioned government funding risks and rising spending pressures, are fueling interest in actively hedging risks through gold and cryptocurrencies, which could drive demand for SOL.

What else is shaping the SOL price:

Institutional reserve allocation and ETF interest could push SOL above current levels.

Competitive space news: Rapid growth of advanced perpetual futures on Hyperliquid, Aster and edgeX shows that the DeFi landscape is competing for the fee economy, adding pressure on SOL.

Ecosystem developments: Hyperliquid is considering its own chain to lower fees and reduce MEV; Aster is planning its own Layer 1 network – this could change the dynamics of the competition and the impact on SOL.

Conclusion:

Technically, SOL is showing a recovery, but the key momentum for $250 will depend on spot ETF approval and how quickly institutional capital flows in. Investors should watch both the level of on-chain activity and staking inflation, as well as regulatory and competitive developments. If the positive ETF signal can be combined with sustainable staking and capital inflows, SOL has the potential to move higher than it has so far.

*This is not an investment recommendation.

The Coingarage Team