Bitcoin falls below $113,000: is this the end of the bull cycle or just a temporary correction?

Bitcoin falls below $113,000: is this the end of the bull cycle or just a temporary correction?

Bitcoin fell below $113,000 (currently around $113,819) for the first time in more than two weeks after reaching a high of $124,176 on Thursday. This was followed by a sharp liquidation of leveraged long positions worth around $113 million, and investors began to speculate whether the long-term bullish trend was coming to an end. However, experts warn that the current volatility does not mean the definitive end of the bullish cycle; rather, it is another step on the market's volatile path.

Key factors in the current correction

- Signals from the options market: Interest in Bitcoin options shows extreme fear among investors. The 30-day delta skew (put/call ratio) for BTC climbed to 12%, the highest in more than four months. It usually ranges between -6% and +6%, with higher values indicating nervousness and caution. History shows that while this indicator rarely remains at high levels for long, bull markets often face periods of correction from which they later recover.

- Macroeconomic pressure factors: Global economic tensions and US trade measures, including recent 50% tariffs on certain steel and aluminum products, are increasing uncertainty among traders and dampening risk appetite. Such measures can affect supply chains and consumer prices, which negatively impacts risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

- Regulatory and corporate concerns: Increased attention surrounding regulatory issues and corporate projects has also affected cryptocurrency sentiment. Reports of an SEC investigation into stock abuse and manipulation at Alt5 Sigma, which joined forces with World Liberty Financial, have raised concerns about the impact on investor confidence. World Liberty Financial, with a prominent "honorary co-founder" in its image, presents itself as a DeFi and stablecoin platform. Such cases often dampen risk appetite in the cryptocurrency market.

- Sentiment on other market developments: The decline in the Nasdaq 100 and reports from MIT NANDA that 95% of companies have not achieved rapid revenue growth from AI pilots are reinforcing concerns about short-term economic weakness and the impact on technology sectors, which is reflected in risk assets including Bitcoin.

- Global currency and commodity environment: UBS has updated its forecast for gold to $3,700 per ounce by September 2026, expecting gold to be supported by weaker economic growth, loose monetary policy, and a weaker dollar. These factors—along with questions surrounding the US fiscal deficit and the Fed's independence—are influencing sentiment on finance and risk assets.

What this means for Bitcoin's short- and long-term outlook

- Short-term turbulence can be expected: High volatility is typical during periods of uncertainty and regulatory battles. It is likely that the market will continue to link developments in the stock markets, fiat currency, and crypto, which may lead to further fluctuations.

- The bullish story is still alive: Despite the current decline, there is no evidence that the bull market is over. Fear in the markets often exceeds rational expectations. History shows that periods of recession can be followed by significant recoveries, and BTC may benefit from any capital flight from the stock markets.

- The long-term outlook continues to support optimism: Although the short-term situation is unclear, many analysts see potential for a corrective rally in Bitcoin once macroeconomic conditions improve or sentiment around technological and regulatory risks stabilizes.

Important notes for readers and investors

- Current figures: At the time of writing, Bitcoin has fallen below $113,000, with a price of around $113,819 and a daily high of around $124,176. The liquidation of tens of millions of dollars worth of long positions has been one of the exciting moments of recent days.

- Key risk vs. opportunity: While short-term fluctuations can be painful for short-term traders, for long-term investors they can be an opportunity to buy at lower prices. It is important to stick to a clearly defined investment horizon and risk management.

- Warning against speculation: All of the factors mentioned—from option indicators to regulatory issues—should be viewed as part of a broader picture. The cryptocurrency market remains highly volatile and susceptible to external shocks.

Conclusion

The current correction of Bitcoin below $113,000 points to a tense and nervous moment in the market, but does not necessarily mean the end of the bullish trend. Investors should monitor the options market, macroeconomic signals, and regulatory developments to better assess short-term movements and maintain a long-term framework. Although turbulence may continue, historical patterns show that BTC has a proven track record of recovery after similar fluctuations—and this is always an important reminder for long-term cryptocurrency enthusiasts, regardless of short-term turbulence. If you are looking for clarity in uncertainty, a long-term horizon and balanced risk remain key principles.

*This is not investment advice.

The Coingarage Team