Bitcoin’s Probability of Falling Below $65,000 Rises to 72% on Polymarket

Bitcoin’s Probability of Falling Below $65,000 Rises to 72% on Polymarket

Bitcoin bets on Polymarket show increased downside risk in 2026 as analysts point to bearish trends and tight liquidity conditions in the US. Prediction markets turned more bearish on Bitcoin after a weekend sell-off briefly pushed prices below $75,000 on Monday.

The assumption of a fall below $65,000 in 2026 rose to 72% on Monday with nearly $1 million in volume.

Other big bets included bets on BTC falling below $55,000 and regaining $100,000 by year-end, with implied probabilities of 61% and 54%, respectively.

The rise in downside bets signals a reversal in sentiment. The market erased gains made during President Donald Trump’s election victory in November 2024.

The decline also marked a significant moment for Michael Saylor’s Strategy, the world’s largest publicly traded holder of bitcoin, as prices fell below the average acquisition price for the first time since late 2023.

Bear market, liquidity pressure in the US cited, traders seek reasons for sell-off

Some analysts attribute the latest crypto sell-off to a broader bearish trend in bitcoin. CryptoQuant reiterated that the bear market has existed since November 2025, when bitcoin fell below its 365-day moving average.

“Don’t try to find bottoms after another dip,” CryptoQuant’s head of research Julio Moreno said in a post on X on Saturday, adding: “It takes months to make a bottom in a bear market.”

The probability of BTC falling below $65,000 has increased by 13% at the time of writing.

Quantum Economics CEO Mati Greenspan said that Bitcoin was not designed to rise in value, calling it a secondary effect rather than its primary purpose.

“Its primary use is to provide a form of money that is independent of governments and banks,” Greenspan wrote on X on Monday.

Global Macro Investor founder Raoul Pal himself has linked the decline to tight liquidity conditions in the U.S. rather than factors specific to the cryptocurrency.

A potential drop for Bitcoin below $65,000 this year could run counter to forecasts from major investment firms and banks.

Late last year, Grayscale Investments predicted that Bitcoin could surpass an all-time high of $126,000 by June 2026, citing institutional demand and clearer regulation in the US.

Standard Chartered and Bernstein had predicted that Bitcoin would reach $150,000 in 2026, although both firms revised their earlier, higher targets amid slower inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

*This is not investment advice.

The Coingarage Team